Fed Economists Say Odds of Early 2012 U.S. Recession Exceed 50%
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The odds of a U.S. recession in early 2012 exceed 50 percent as a result of Europe’s debt crisis, according to researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
“Prudence suggests that the fragile state of the U.S. economy would not easily withstand turbulence coming across the Atlantic,” economist Travis Berge, research associate Early Elias and research advisor Oscar Jorda wrote in a paper released by the bank today. “A European sovereign debt default may well sink the United States back into recession.”