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iemergent Releases 2015 Mortgage Origination Forecast

iemergent released their 2015 Lending Forecast Tuesday, predicting purchasing originations will continue to dominate over refinance originations. According to the forecasting and advisory services firm, purchase mortgage lending activity will rise modestly and the refinance range will continue to be weak.

“These numbers indicate that the housing market should slowly begin its ascent to recovery, although it may be a turbulent ride with many starts and stutters, iemergent CEO Laird Nossuli said. “All the signs are present that this year will be better than last year – on account of an increase in purchase originations, but also due to the spike in refinances that we’ve seen already this year.  With that in mind, we are not ready to declare a full-steam-ahead recovery for the market. Most likely, there will be some ebb and flow to its march upward.​”

The report predicts the 2015 purchase volume will feature over 3.3 million loans totaling to $782.6 billion. The 2015 refinance volume range is between 1.41 million loans at the low end totaling to $305.9 billion to 1.77 million loans at the high end totaling to $384 billion. The 2015 expected low end for total mortgage value is 4.74 million loans for 1,088.5 billion. The high end is 5.1 million loans at $1,166.6 billion.

However, several factors could skew these predictions including the instable U.S. economy, low interest rates, and consumer confidence remaining low. According to iemergent, these factors are all threats to housing market recovery.

“Potential downside factors include a larger-than-expected increase in rates or a slide in wage or income levels. People may simply still need more time to feel ready and willing to buy a home. There are a number of initiatives meant to increase credit availability, like the 3% down products, the reduction in the FHA insurance premiums and some state-by-state first time homebuyer offerings,” Nossuli said. “However, it could happen that these programs do not have the impact we’re expecting and credit stays tight. More than anything, though, the recovery of the market depends on whether households feel they can safely afford a home. Employment, wage and income trends may continue to improve, but there are times when the consumer sentiment lags behind those gains.​”

iemergent will release its official  2015-2019 forecast in October.

About Author: Samantha Guzman

Samantha Guzman is an award-winning visual journalist and graduate of the University of North Texas Mayborn School of Journalism. She specializes in visual storytelling and has skills in video, audio and photography, in addition to news writing. She has traveled to Mexico and Bosnia as an assistant for multiple multimedia projects and taught news writing, photojournalism, and narrative storytelling in the past.
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